One question I am frequently asked: is this a good time to make a career move? Staying up to date on market trends helps us answer this question, and there is no better resource than FMI’s quarterly North American Engineering and Construction Outlook report.
In this report, we learn that total U.S. construction spending is forecast at $2.214 trillion in 2026, down just over 1% from 2025. Of the 19 markets FMI tracks, three are growing, eight are stable, and eight are declining.
So should you stay or should you go? The honest answer is that it depends entirely on your sector.
Where the Market Is Pulling Back
Manufacturing is leading most of the overall decline, down 17.4% to $178 billion. The semiconductor fabs and battery plants that started going up between 2022 and 2024 are winding down their heavy construction phases.
If you were running MEP scopes on those massive builds, you already know there isn't much starting behind them. Census data puts manufacturing spending down 22% year to date.
Other declining sectors in 2026 include lodging, commercial, health care, and education. If your recent project history leans heavily on those industries, you're likely feeling the squeeze. FMI doesn't see meaningful spending growth returning to manufacturing until 2028.
If you've been thinking about what's next, now is a better time to explore your options than waiting for the market to tighten further.
Where the Demand Is
Data center construction is the main event. Spending is up 21.4% to $60 billion this year, with continued growth projected through 2030. The companies building these facilities have massive capital commitments behind them and aren't slowing down.
If you work in mechanical, plumbing, or electrical on critical facilities – HVAC and process cooling, piping systems, electrical distribution, commissioning – you have options right now. The bottleneck for data center construction is power access and grid capacity, not demand or budget. Experienced MEP talent is in short supply, and companies are actively looking for people who can run these complex systems. This isn't a market where you want to wait and see what comes to you.
Power and Utility is a segment to watch closely. Spending is growing only 2% in 2026, held back by equipment delays. GE Vernova's gas turbines are booked through 2029, and transformer lead times are running nearly two and a half years. But FMI projects 8% growth in 2027, accelerating through the rest of the decade, with spending rising from $176 billion to $274 billion by 2030. No other segment in the forecast comes close to that trajectory.
If you're in utility-scale mechanical, transmission and distribution, or gas-fired generation, companies are already staffing for projects that likely won't show up on job boards for months.
Why Starting the Conversation Early Matters
I hear "I'm not really looking right now, but I'd consider the right opportunity" all the time. That means now is actually the ideal time to connect.
When the market tightens, the candidates best positioned to make a move are already on a recruiter’s radar, not waiting for a position to open before submitting a resume.
In a growing segment, the best positions fill through relationships before they ever get posted. Knowing where you stand on market value, what roles are actually available for your specific MEP background, and which companies are actively building teams puts you in a position to make a decision on your terms.
Market data can tell you what direction a segment is heading. It can't tell you how your background maps to the roles currently open, or what compensation looks like for someone with your experience in 2026. Those are conversations, not reports.
Whether your sector is expanding or contracting, now is the time to talk, not six months from now. The market is moving either way; the question is whether you're ahead of it.
